Ever since Andrew Wakefield published his Lancet paper in 1998, parents have been in a dreadful position. Even those of us who guessed that a large section of the supposedly adult population of the country was in the grip of a raving panic, couldn’t help asking: what if Wakefield is right?
On the remote chance that he was, we paid for courses of single jabs - at £140-a-go in my case. Now it turns out the Department of Health was telling the truth all along, I’m wondering who I can sue to get my money back.
[...]Perhaps Wakefield, the Lancet, the Mail, the Eye and Channel 5 should be more worried about the people who took the mania so seriously they didn’t give their children any vaccines, single of multiple. In my experience, they were determined, if scientifically illiterate, middle-class mothers with easy access to lawyers.
If there should be a measles epidemic…
So class! What have we noticed? Let's start with Cohen's opening shuffle of responsibility: "Even those of us who guessed that a large section of the supposedly adult population of the country was in the grip of a raving panic, couldn’t help asking: what if Wakefield is right?" Clever Nick is one of the ones who "guessed", of course, and so by implication are you. Isn't it nice to be embraced in his little circle of intelligence? Don't you feel validated and warm and distinct from all those raving hysterics? But before we get too cosy, let's give some attention to the word "guessed". Cohen "guessed" that the panic was just a panic. Of course, if he'd read some of the studies in question and wrapped his head around a small portion of the science of epidemiology, he wouldn't have needed to guess - he could have made a rational assessment of the evidence and got to the right answer that way. But he didn't, so poor Nick had to suffer that niggling "what if".
Nick wasn't alone in this, of course. I had my first child in 2002, so I was right in the thick of the scare: one mother talked to me earnestly about her fear of vaccinating, saying that she knew "three children who got autism from the jab". People were genuinely alarmed - although it's fair to say that very few of the fearful parents took their concerns from the original paper in the Lancet, which doesn't feature quite as regularly on middle-class coffee-tables as the Mail or the Observer. Cohen doesn't mention the Observer as one of the organs he might sue for his £140 quid. Maybe he missed some of the great moments in science journalism featured in his own paper: "The only complete vaccination I have given my three-year-old daughter is tetanus and, after attending a lecture on MMR by the homeopath Trevor Gunn, I wish I had not" , said sub-editor Kate Edgley, presumably applying the full force of her proof-reading skills to the interpretation of medical data. (The Observer started out with a fairly rational line of reporting, but after the Blairs refused to give up their baby son's medical history for public consumption, began recklessly issuing opinion pieces from the frontline of doubt.)
It's the job of a medical journal to publish medical research so it can be debated. In publishing Wakefield's research, the Lancet was doing what it is supposed to do. Ideally, the national press would have made a responsible assessment of the paper in question and reported on it proportionately. What they actually did was produce reports on unsubstantiated fears which then became the cause for more and more widespread fears. I feel confident in saying that I and my partner are one up on Cohen, because we took our own case of "what if" as the occassion for doing more research: we confirmed that the single jab was without doubt the best option, and afterwards watched my son for fever and rashes a little more closely than we would have done normally. That is all.
Then again, I'm not one of the "determined, if scientifically illiterate, middle-class mothers with easy access to lawyers". But hang on! Nor is Nick - he might be scientifically illiterate, bar the odd happy guess, but he is absolutely, definitely a father. So that "large section of the supposedly adult population" from whom Cohen distinguishes himself, even though he partook of their terrors? That would be the women. Cohen might have had doubts, but it's the mothers who were in a "raving panic". Covert misogyny alert!
Of course, "if there should be a measles epidemic", we're all liable to suffer, whether we're vaccinated or not. The MMR isn't 100% effective, but it's effective enough to foster herd immunity. When take-up rates dip low enough for measles, mumps or rubella to spread in a community, even the immunised are at risk. So even if you did the right and responsible thing, your children could contract a sometimes-deadly, often-debilitating disease. Although on the plus side, you could then sign up with Cohen for a class action - if he suffered some loss that was not self-inflicted (the ill-health of a child caused by other people's failure to vaccinate, say) then maybe he could sue someone. Until then, he had better look on that £140 quid as a loss incurred in the course of being an irrationalist, conspiracy-hungry idiot.
Bad Science talks, rightly, about the importance of giving people (journalists particularly) a proper grounding in the understanding of statistics. People need to know how to interpret numbers to make decisions using them. And people (journalists particularly) should learn the basics of making an argument as well - how to distinguish a genuine case from a self-serving blob of commentary. Smarter readers would demand smarter writers. But brash, sloppy editorial is easy to churn out, and easy to position as "debate" on "controversial issues" when it isn't going to be read closely.